Retirement Calculator 2026

Retirement Calculator Guide — FIRE Number, 4% Rule & Full Drawdown Analysis

FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is built on one core idea: accumulate a portfolio large enough that a safe annual withdrawal covers your expenses indefinitely. This calculator shows you the complete picture — not just when you'll hit your target, but whether your money will last through your entire retirement.

Understanding the Wealth Lifecycle Chart

Most calculators show only the accumulation phase — how much your savings will grow before retirement. This calculator shows both phases: the accumulation phase (savings growing toward your FIRE number) and the drawdown phase (portfolio declining as you withdraw in retirement).

The drawdown phase is where most people get surprised. Even a large corpus can run out if withdrawals are too high, inflation erodes purchasing power, and post-retirement returns are modest. The chart shows exactly when — if ever — your portfolio reaches zero.

Social Security and Its Impact on Your FIRE Number

Social Security dramatically reduces the portfolio you need. Every $1,000/month in Social Security income reduces your required portfolio by $300,000 at the 4% rule ($1,000 × 12 × 25 = $300K). A couple with combined $3,500/month in benefits on $8,000/month expenses only needs to cover $4,500/month from portfolio — cutting their FIRE number from $2.4M to $1.35M.

Important: if you retire before 62, you won't receive Social Security yet. Our calculator applies Social Security income from day one of retirement — for very early retirees, delay the SS number until you're actually eligible or use a separate calculation for the SS-free early years.

Types of FIRE

• LeanFIRE: Under $40K/year expenses. Extremely frugal, often requires geographic arbitrage or low cost-of-living areas.
• FIRE: $40K–$80K/year. Standard comfortable retirement. The 4% rule was designed for this range.
• FatFIRE: $80K–$150K/year. Comfortable lifestyle, travel, dining, no financial stress.
• FatFatFIRE: $150K+/year. Luxury retirement — requires $3.75M+ corpus at 4%.
• BaristaFIRE: Semi-retire — part-time work covers some expenses, reducing required corpus.
• CoastFIRE: Save enough early that compound growth alone reaches your FIRE number by a target retirement age — no additional contributions needed.

The 4% Rule — Still Valid in 2026?

The 4% rule comes from William Bengen's 1994 research using US market data from 1926–1992. It showed that a 4% annual withdrawal from a 60/40 (stocks/bonds) portfolio historically survived all 30-year retirement periods, including the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation.

Concerns in 2026: higher valuations (CAPE ratio near historic highs) and lower bond yields suggest future returns may be below historical averages. Many researchers now recommend 3.3–3.5% as a safer withdrawal rate for retirements of 40+ years. For 30-year retirements, 4% remains well-supported.

Sequence of Returns Risk

The biggest threat to retirement isn't average returns — it's the order of returns. A major market crash in your first 3–5 years of retirement can permanently damage your portfolio, even if long-term average returns are fine. Withdrawing from a portfolio that's down 40% locks in those losses.

Mitigation strategies: keep 1–2 years of expenses in cash/bonds so you don't need to sell equities during a downturn; consider a bucket strategy (short-term, medium-term, long-term buckets); be flexible on withdrawals and reduce spending in bad market years.